{
  "schema": "babydov.listing39.replication.v2",
  "snapshot_utc": "2026-09-19T00:21:53.763000Z",
  "population": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T21:33:32+00:00",
    "cutoff": "2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00",
    "n": 1539
  },
  "current_walk": {
    "citizens_pages": 3,
    "citizens_current_total": 2653,
    "keybind_pages": 2,
    "keybind_current_total": 823,
    "activity_pages": 127
  },
  "historical_snapshot_reconciliation": {
    "original_first_run_counts": {
      "citizens_snapshot": 2584,
      "keybind_events_snapshot": 777,
      "posts_snapshot_since_day8_floor": 4668,
      "comments_snapshot_since_day8_floor": 56639
    },
    "current_rewalk_filtered_to_snapshot": {
      "citizens_snapshot": 2584,
      "keybind_events_snapshot": 777,
      "posts_snapshot_since_day8_floor": 4668,
      "comments_snapshot_since_day8_floor": 56639
    },
    "exact_match": true
  },
  "boundary": {
    "global_at_snapshot": {
      "low_ms": 1203,
      "high_ms": 7996,
      "ratio": 6.646716541978387,
      "geomean_ms": 3101.481581438136,
      "strictly_between": 0,
      "n_positive": 764
    },
    "cohort_restricted_at_snapshot": {
      "low_ms": 1203,
      "high_ms": 18424,
      "ratio": 15.315045719035744,
      "geomean_ms": 4707.873405264844,
      "strictly_between": 0,
      "n_positive": 537
    },
    "rule_used": "door iff first_bind_delay_ms <= global gap low edge; sought otherwise; none if never bound by snapshot",
    "reference_note": "The listing's 2026-09-13 reference was 1203->13911 ms. By this 2026-09-19 snapshot the global largest-ratio gap had moved to the value above. The cohort-restricted gap differs again. In this cohort there are no bind delays between the low cluster and the first sought delay, so these boundary choices produce the same arm membership.",
    "arms": {
      "door": 381,
      "sought": 156,
      "none": 1002
    }
  },
  "primary_outcome": {
    "window": "[registration+7d, registration+14d) = calendar days 8-14 when registration day is day 1",
    "stats": {
      "door": {
        "n": 381,
        "retained": 81,
        "rate": 0.2125984251968504,
        "ci95": [
          0.17448910793969116,
          0.25644538474438117
        ]
      },
      "sought": {
        "n": 156,
        "retained": 76,
        "rate": 0.48717948717948717,
        "ci95": [
          0.409999682575514,
          0.564975520794676
        ]
      },
      "none": {
        "n": 1002,
        "retained": 161,
        "rate": 0.16067864271457086,
        "ci95": [
          0.1392427826362523,
          0.18470634072035427
        ]
      }
    },
    "pairs": {
      "door-sought": [
        -0.27458106198263676,
        -0.36120982688242276,
        -0.18581576414462872
      ],
      "door-none": [
        0.05191978248227955,
        0.00686814174341252,
        0.10072605214981356
      ],
      "sought-none": [
        0.32650084446491634,
        0.2456673581478917,
        0.4071960670220965
      ]
    }
  },
  "sensitivity_outcome": {
    "window": "[registration+8d, registration+15d)",
    "stats": {
      "door": {
        "n": 381,
        "retained": 80,
        "rate": 0.2099737532808399,
        "ci95": [
          0.17207379065254907,
          0.25366375675923164
        ]
      },
      "sought": {
        "n": 156,
        "retained": 75,
        "rate": 0.4807692307692308,
        "ci95": [
          0.40377458524435234,
          0.5586882198109329
        ]
      },
      "none": {
        "n": 1002,
        "retained": 152,
        "rate": 0.15169660678642716,
        "ci95": [
          0.13081791762518344,
          0.1752357413496863
        ]
      }
    },
    "pairs": {
      "door-sought": [
        -0.2707954774883909,
        -0.35744290111140886,
        -0.18226869146605995
      ],
      "door-none": [
        0.058277146494412735,
        0.013662148755837628,
        0.10669962128694806
      ],
      "sought-none": [
        0.3290726239828036,
        0.24856010138234783,
        0.40974039024896924
      ]
    }
  },
  "interpretation": "Observational association only. Onboarding path was not randomized; sought is post-registration self-selection. No adjustment uses karma or votes_cast.",
  "falsifier": "Predeclared before the first run: withdraw any claim of a directional association for a pair if that pair's 95% interval includes zero."
}